Predict who the next pope will be at your peril. An old Italian saying warns against putting faith, or money, in any presumed front-runner ahead of the conclave, the closed-door gathering of cardinals that picks the pontiff. It cautions: “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal”. But here are some cardinals who are being talked about as ‘papabili’ to succeed Pope Francis, whose death at the age of 88 was announced by the Vatican yesterday. They are listed in alphabetical order.
Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille, French, aged 66.
According to the French Press, he is known in some domestic Catholic circles as John XXIV, in a nod to his resemblance to Pope John XXIII, the round-faced reforming pope of the early 1960s. Pope Francis once quipped that his successor might take the name of John XXIV. Aveline is known for his folksy, easy-going nature, his readiness to crack jokes, and his ideological proximity to Francis, especially on immigration and relations with the Muslim world. He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy. If he got the top job, Aveline would become the first French pope since the 14th century, a turbulent period in which the papacy moved to Avignon. He would also be the youngest pope since John Paul II. He understands but does not speak Italian – potentially a major drawback for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome and requires a lot of familiarity with Roman power games and intrigues.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, Hungarian, aged 72
If Erdo is elected, he would inevitably be seen as a compromise candidate – someone from the conservative camp who has nonetheless built bridges with Francis’ progressive world. Erdo was already considered a papal contender in the last conclave in 2013 thanks to his extensive Church contacts in Europe and Africa as well as the fact that he was seen as a pioneer of the New Evangelisation drive to rekindle the Catholic faith in secularised advanced nations – a top priority for many cardinals.
Cardinal Mario Grech, secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Maltese, aged 68.
Grech comes from Gozo, a tiny island that is part of Malta, the smallest country in the European Union. But from small beginnings he has gone on to big things, appointed by Pope Francis to be secretary general of the Synod of Bishops – a heavyweight position within the Vatican. Initially viewed as a conservative, Grech has become a torchbearer of Francis’ reforms within the Church for years, moving sharply with the times.
Cardinal Juan Jose Omella, archbishop of Barcelona, Spanish, aged 79.
Omella is a man after Pope Francis’ own heart. Unassuming and good-natured, he lives a humble life despite his lofty title, dedicating his Church career to pastoral care, promoting social justice and embodying a compassionate and inclusive vision of Catholicism. He was born in 1946 in the village of Cretas in northeastern Spain. After being ordained in 1970 he served as a priest in a number of Spanish parishes and also spent a year as a missionary in Zaire, now called Democratic Republic of Congo.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Italian, Vatican diplomat, aged 70.
A punters’ favourite, Parolin is seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives. He has been a Church diplomat for most of his life and served as Pope Francis’ secretary of state since 2013, the year Francis was elected.
The position is similar to that of a prime minister and secretaries of state are often called the ‘deputy pope’ because they rank second to the pontiff in the Vatican hierarchy.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, Filipino, aged 67.
Tagle is often called the ‘Asian Francis’ because of his similar commitment to social justice and if elected he would be the first pontiff from Asia. He has had decades of pastoral experience since his ordination to the priesthood in 1982. He then gained administrative experience, first as bishop of Imus and then as archbishop of Manila. Pope Benedict made him a cardinal in 2012.
Cardinal Joseph Tobin, archbishop of Newark, N.J., American, aged 72.
It’s unlikely the world’s cardinals would pick the first ever US pope, but if they were up for that, Tobin would seem the likeliest possibility. A former global leader of a major Catholic religious order known as the Redemptorists, the Detroit native has spent time in countries around the world and speaks Italian, Spanish, French and Portuguese fluently.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, Ghanaian, Vatican official, aged 76.
From humble beginnings in a small African town, Cardinal Peter Turkson has gone on to great things in the Church, making him a contender to become the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa. He combines a long pastoral background of tending to congregations in Ghana with hands-on experience of leading several Vatican offices, as well as strong communication skills.
Matteo Maria Zuppi, Italian, archbishop of Bologna, aged 69.
When Zuppi got a promotion in 2015 and became archbishop of Bologna, national media referred to him as the ‘Italian Bergoglio’, due to his affinity with Francis, the Argentine pope who was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio.
Zuppi would be the first Italian pope since 1978. Much like Pope Francis when he lived in Buenos Aires, Zuppi is known as a ‘street priest’ who focuses on migrants and the poor, and cares little about pomp and protocol.
&uuid=(email))