Rising trade tensions and sweeping shifts in the global trading system will trigger downward revisions of the International Monetary Fund’s economic forecasts but no global recession is expected, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said yesterday.
Georgieva said countries’ economies were being tested by a reboot of the global trading system – sparked in recent months by US tariffs and retaliation by China and the European Union – that had unleashed ‘off the charts’ uncertainty in trade policy and extreme volatility in financial markets.
“Disruptions entail costs ... our new growth projections will include notable markdowns but not recession,” she said in an address ahead of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, which will discuss Trump’s tariffs and the turmoil in financial markets.
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