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JP Morgan Private Bank’s 2025 Mid-Year Global Investment Outlook, ‘Comfortably Uncomfortable,’ has highlighted shifting asset returns and emphasizes portfolio resilience amid policy uncertainty, elevated US equity valuations, and market concentration.
“Investors must contend with deep policy uncertainty... and persistent volatility,” said Grace Peters, co-head of global investment strategy at the bank. Stephen Parker, also co-head of global investment strategy, advised globally diversified portfolios for stability against potential US dollar weakening.
JP Morgan Private Bank’s outlook identifies several key themes: Portfolio resilience is crucial amidst growth and inflation risks, with diversified hedge funds and equity-linked structured notes offering uncorrelated returns, while Europe’s economic outlook brightens, potentially boosting Eurozone growth to 1-1.5 per cent by 2026.
The dollar faces gradual erosion from protectionism and fiscal policies, leading JP Morgan to suggest diversifying currency exposure via Euro, Yen, and gold, as central bank allocations indicate. Artificial Intelligence is expected to drive significant productivity gains, particularly in software and financials, despite market distractions. Finally, in alternative dealmaking, while private equity dealmaking paces slower, secondary markets and evergreen funds offer new opportunities and liquidity, making private market exposure critical.
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