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2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his country’s arch foe Iran. The veteran Israeli leader is set to cement his strategic goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and capitalising on the dismantling of Tehran’s allies – Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon’s Hizbollah and the removal of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad.
Assad’s collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of Hamas and Hizbollah and the destruction of their military structure mark a succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu. Without Syria, the alliances Tehran has nurtured for decades have unravelled. As Iran’s influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the dominant power in the region. Netanyahu is poised to zero in on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programme, applying an unyielding focus to dismantling and neutralising these strategic threats to Israel. Iran, Middle East observers say, faces a stark choice: Either continue its nuclear enrichment programme or scale back its atomic activities and agree to negotiations.
“Iran is very vulnerable to an Israeli attack, particularly against its nuclear programme,” said Joost R Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa Programme Director of the International Crisis Group. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel did it, but that doesn’t get rid of Iran. If they (Iranians) do not back down, Trump and Netanyahu might strike, as nothing now prevents them,” said Palestinian analyst Ghassan Al Khatib, referring to President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib argued that the Iranian leadership, having demonstrated pragmatism in the past, may be willing to compromise to avert a military confrontation. Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear goals, is likely to step up sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, despite calls to return to negotiations from critics who see diplomacy as a more effective long-term policy.
Amid the turmoil of Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a defining role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, Netanyahu took the stand in proceedings that have bitterly divided Israelis.
With 2024 coming to an end, the Israeli prime minister will likely agree to sign a ceasefire accord with Hamas to halt the 14-month-old Gaza war and free Israeli hostages held in the enclave, according to sources close to the negotiations. But Gaza would stay under Israeli military control in the absence of a post-war US plan for Israel to cede power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu rejects. Arab states have shown little inclination to press Israel to compromise or push the decaying PA to overhaul its leadership to take over.
“Israel will remain in Gaza militarily in the foreseeable future because any withdrawal carries the risk of Hamas reorganising. Israel believes that the only way to maintain the military gains is to stay in Gaza,” Khatib told Reuters.
For Netanyahu, such a result would mark a strategic victory, consolidating a status quo that aligns with his vision.
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