A humbled aerospace industry holds its annual festival next week struggling to meet demand because of a crisis inside its plants.
For decades a venue for planemakers led by Airbus and Boeing to boast about billions of dollars of orders, the Farnborough Airshow to be held from Monday to Friday is likely to be overshadowed by growing airline frustration over plane shortages and delays.
Carriers like Japan Airlines are said to be close to firming up recent tentative orders, and Qatar Airways, Korean Air and Turkish Airlines have all said they are shopping for jets.
But, despite some deals, concerns about supply chains and factory performance are set to eclipse the usual triumphalism.
“The entire market has suffered supply chain issues,” Saleh Eid, vice-president of fleet management at Saudia Airlines, said inside a factory in Germany that is due to help build 105 newly ordered Airbus jets for the Gulf carrier.
Boeing in particular is expected to adopt a muted tone as it wrestles with a corporate crisis following the mid-air blowout in January of a door plug blamed on missing bolts.
Outgoing chief executive Dave Calhoun will not attend for a second year and Aviation Week bemoaned what it called a “leadership vacuum”, though divisional leaders will all be present. Nor is the company displaying its own planes this time.
A Boeing spokesperson referred to an earlier statement that it had tailored its presence to focus on safety and quality.
Airbus will thin its presence to cut costs, delegates said.
After widespread quality snags such as poorly tightened bolts, some say the appetite is for more torque and less talk.
“It’s not the best time to roll out lots of orders; it is about improving things in the factory,” one delegate said.
Aviation was hit hard by the pandemic which saw air travel collapse only to bounce back sharply. That has left many firms scrambling to resolve labour and parts shortages. By the time they recover, the juiciest part of the business cycle may be running out, said Agency Partners analyst Nick Cunningham.
“In the past the issue has always been one of demand, about how long is the cycle going to last. Now the issue is about getting the boxes out of the door.”
Critics say the industry has itself to blame after squeezing suppliers.
“They are realising that securing a big chunk of the supply chain and giving it the resources it needs is a precursor to doing the ramp-up,” Aerodynamic Advisory managing director Richard Aboulafia said.
Planemakers do have something to celebrate, with Boeing’s delayed 777X starting certification test flights and Airbus winning approval for its A321XLR.
But competitors like China’s Comac, Brazil’s Embraer and the futuristic curved Jet Zero are alert for opportunities.
The biennial event in southern England, which alternates with the Paris Airshow, is also expected to offer contrasting pictures of global affairs.
Air travel is growing as societies and people connect and do business, with a record five billion trips forecast this year.
But rising geopolitical tensions are stoking demand for weapons and fuelling trade tensions that can hurt air travel.
The vulnerability of airlines to setbacks was underscored on Friday when a global cyber outage caused airport chaos and hundreds of flight cancellations, on top of scarce jet capacity.
The defence side of the show will focus on Ukraine, possible delays to America’s future F-22 fighter replacement, code-named NGAD, and a defence review by Britain’s new Labour government.
“The new (UK) ministerial team will be lobbied by all the defence companies to make sure their equipment is top of the ideas pile,” said Alex Walmsley, associate fellow of UK think-tank RUSI.
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