THE Federal Reserve held interest rates steady yesterday, but in its most divided decision since 1992 noted rising concerns about inflation in a policy statement that drew three dissents from officials who no longer feel the US central bank should communicate a bias towards lowering borrowing costs.
A fourth dissent at the meeting came in favour of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut.
“Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices,” the Fed said in its policy statement, a shift from previous language saying that inflation was just “somewhat” elevated.”Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.”
The 8-4 vote was the most divisive since October 6, 1992, and shows the breadth of opinion incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will face in pursuing rate cuts that President Donald Trump says he expects from his chosen successor to Jerome Powell, whose term as central bank chief ends on May 15.
Though the latest policy statement retained language about how the Fed would assess the “extent and timing of additional adjustments” to rates, a phrase that pointed to future cuts as the next likely move, three policymakers objected.
Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, while supportive of holding the policy rate steady in the current 3.50 per cent-3.75pc range, “did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time” and voted against the new statement.
With global oil prices lodged above $100 a barrel due to the US-backed war against Iran, the Fed has been hard-pressed to determine if the impact is likely to be seen more through depressed growth or higher inflation, keeping the policy rate in the range where it has been since December despite repeated demands by Trump for looser monetary policy.
Alongside elevated inflation, “the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months” while the economy continues to expand “at a solid pace,” the Fed said.
The new statement is likely the last to be issued under Powell’s leadership.
Earlier yesterday, the Republican-controlled Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Warsh’s nomination on a party-line 13-11 vote. The Senate is expected to confirm Warsh next month.
The minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting noted a growing number of policymakers were open to the idea that the central bank’s next move might be a rate increase, and the number of hawkish dissents may prompt investors to boost bets that borrowing costs will rise this year.
Since the March meeting, inflation has shown signs of rising, with officials concerned that sustained high global oil prices could evolve from a one-time price shock to a jump in underlying pressure on prices.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran, in what may also be his last meeting, again dissented in favour of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut, as he has done at every meeting since moving to the central bank from his prior job as one of Trump’s top economic advisers.
Meanwhile, Wall Street moved lower yesterday, with spiking crude prices fanning inflation worries as the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.
The three major US stock indexes gyrated lower after the Fed’s policy statement revealed the decision to hold rates steady was its most divided since 1992, along with uncertainties concerning rising energy prices due to turmoil in the Middle East.
Crude prices jumped after the White House confirmed reports that US President Donald Trump told officials to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports, which suggests ongoing supply pressures due to restricted traffic in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
“Today oil prices are pretty much leading the movement in the market because it does not appear as if we’re going to be getting any kind of a quick resolution to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.
A White House official said Trump had met with top officials from Chevron and other energy companies to talk about possible steps to calm oil markets in case a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports continues for months.
Rising energy prices have revived fears of broader inflation, even as the Federal Reserve concluded what is probably its last policy meeting of the Powell era by leaving its key interest rate unchanged, as expected.
Separately, investors girded themselves for a quartet of high-profile earnings reports due after the closing bell from four of the companies that comprise the Magnificent Seven group of artificial intelligence-related megacap firms: Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Microsoft.
&uuid=(email))